Macroeconomic Forecast Errors Across Global Economies: A Panel Econometric Analysis of Growth and Inflation
Keywords:
Macroeconomic Forecasting, GDP Growth, Inflation Dynamics, Panel Econometrics, Global EconomiesAbstract
The role of macroeconomic forecasting in the making of economic policies is important but the reliability of forecasting is challenging due to the different dynamics of economic growth and inflation. The present study analyzed the growth and inflation trends of the world's economies on an annual basis from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) Database. The quantitative longitudinal panel approach was used for evaluation of cross-country heterogeneity, temporal fluctuation and distributional characteristics over 2000-2024. Macroeconomic variability was assessed by descriptive statistics and comparative analyses. The results showed an average GDP growth of 3.47%, significant inflation dispersion, and significant economic period differences. Global economic activity slowed down considerably in 2020 and started to recover in 2021; meanwhile, the median inflation rate rose significantly in 2022 but was less pronounced in the following years. The results have shown that country-specific features, economic disturbances, and good statistical methodology are very important for macroeconomic analysis. While the historical forecast errors have not been directly calculated from the single-vintage data, the study provided a basis for further panel econometric research on forecasting accuracy and systematic prediction errors.
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